# NEAR Long-Term Investment Thesis
*For research and education only. This is not investment, financial or legal advice.*
**Live dashboard: [nearinsight.xyz](http://nearinsight.xyz)** · **Guide: [README.md](README.md)**
⚖️ Verdict ⚖️
**The latest data supports the mechanism but not yet the outcome: trading through NEAR Intents buys NEAR, and the buying is growing faster than needed at today's price, but the NEAR burned plus bought still equals only part of the NEAR minted. The breaking point *No supply overhang left to unlock* is broken.**
- Of the 4 core breaking points (the pillars and valuation), 4 hold. Of the 3 supporting breaking points (technology, network and peers), 2 hold and 1 is broken. The broken one is **No supply overhang left to unlock**.
- NEAR Intents volume over the last 30 days was $3.76B, up 58% from $2.38B in the same 30 days a year earlier.
- NEAR Intents fees bought 405.2K NEAR over the last 30 days. NEAR bought over the last 90 days was 1.48M NEAR, up 71% from 865.22K NEAR in the 90 days before, a pace of 20.0% growth a month (95% range +9.8% to +31.2% a month).
- On chain, the three fee wallets gained 408.9K NEAR over the last 30 days, against 405.2K NEAR counted as bought over the same days. The two differ by 0.9%, so the NEAR bought is still held.
- NEAR burned plus NEAR bought equaled 16.0% of the NEAR minted over the last 30 days; to match all of it, burn plus buybacks would need to be 6.24× as large. At today's price, NEAR's market cap is 251× the yearly value of NEAR burned and bought (the same 30 days, annualized).
- For burn plus buybacks to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years at today's price, with the burn held at its current rate, NEAR bought needs to grow 5.0% a month, so NEAR bought is growing faster than needed at today's price. That pace is measured only on the buying since buybacks began on 2026-02-23.
- NEAR handled 19.92M transactions over the 30 days to 2026-11-11, down 85% from 132.2M in the same 30 days a year earlier; Intents users need not hold NEAR, so NEAR Intents creates demand for the token mainly through the fees that buy it, not through activity on NEAR itself.
💡 The thesis 💡
**NEAR Intents turns cross-chain trading into buying of NEAR on the open market. If the NEAR it buys plus the NEAR burned grows to match the NEAR the protocol issues, all newly issued NEAR is either burned or held off the market.**
The case rests on 3 pillars, followed by the valuation and 3 supporting theses:
1. **Cross-chain trading runs through NEAR.**
2. **That trading buys NEAR.**
3. **New supply is growing more slowly.**
4. **Valuation:** What today's price requires of buybacks.
5. **Technology:** The chain can carry the usage.
6. **Network:** No single party controls the network.
7. **Peers:** No supply overhang left to unlock.
How it works:
1. People swap tokens across chains through NEAR Intents, and they never need to hold NEAR to do it.
2. Since February 2026, the NEAR Intents app and the 1Click API have spent the fees they keep on buying NEAR on the open market, and the NEAR bought is not burned. Gas fees on NEAR are burned, all of them from protocol 87 on.
3. New supply grows more slowly: max issuance was halved from 5% to 2.5% a year in October 2025, and HSP-029, a House of Stake proposal, would ramp max issuance down to 1.6% over 2 years, starting 90 days after its vote's timelock ends; it changes issuance only once it is approved and validators adopt it in a protocol upgrade.
Each section below states the claim, the bull case (the evidence for it) and the bear case (the evidence against it). It ends with the breaking point (the result that would change the view) and whether the data shows it. The dashboard shows the same sections with live data.
🗂️ About the data 🗂️
- **Snapshot:** 2026-11-12, generated by `npm run thesis` from the dashboard's database (`GET /api/thesis`). The dashboard updates these numbers as the worker stores new data; this document is a dated copy.
- **Data through:** flow windows end on **2026-11-10**, the last day that Intents volume, Intents buybacks, gas fees and the NEAR price all cover. DefiLlama finishes a day's totals during the next day, so the worker stores DefiLlama's flow series only through the day before yesterday (UTC); this day is 2 days before the snapshot. Windows that use Intents gross fees (the fee chain, the fee rate and the share of fees that buys NEAR) end on 2026-11-09, the last full day of fees, as the newest day of fees is still filling. NearBlocks figures (transactions and accounts) end on 2026-11-11.
- **NEAR Intents:** volume (public and confidential), swaps, fees, volume by chain and token, fees by channel and TVL come from the NEAR team's Dune dashboard (`https://dune.com/near/near-intents`), refreshed about once a day. Volume and fees use Dune's value on each day it has one and DefiLlama's otherwise. From April to August 2026, DefiLlama counted only public swaps, leaving out confidential ones, so it is not the primary source. Revenue and buybacks come from DefiLlama.
- **Market:** NEAR at **$3.47**, rank **#22**, market cap **$4.55B** (CoinGecko, reading of 2026-11-12).
- **Network:** mainnet runs **protocol 88**; testnet runs 88.
- **Burn and issuance** are measured from block headers (a NEAR archival RPC node, FastNEAR's by default), one epoch at a time, from 2025-10-01. A window shows "—" until the stored epochs cover every day of the window.
- **Units:** issuance is paid in NEAR, so buybacks are measured in NEAR: each day's dollar amount is converted at that day's NEAR price. Burn is read in NEAR from block headers.
- **Windows:** Intents buybacks began on 2026-02-23. Growth comparisons use 90-day windows; year-on-year comparisons use 30 days against the same 30 days a year earlier.
- **Missing values:** "—" means the database does not cover that window yet. No value is estimated in its place.
🌐 1. Cross-chain trading runs through NEAR 🌐
**Claim:** NEAR Intents settles swaps across chains. Its users never need to hold NEAR, so they can come from any chain, not only from apps built on NEAR.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NEAR Intents volume | $3.76B | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR Intents volume, same 30 days a year earlier | $2.38B | 30 days to 2025-11-10 |
| Change in NEAR Intents volume against the same 30 days a year earlier | +58% | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR Intents volume | $33.87B | 365 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Change in NEAR Intents volume, 90 days against the 90 days before | +73% | 90 days to 2026-11-10, against the 90 days before |
| NEAR Intents swaps, public and confidential | 1.84M | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| NEAR Intents swaps, same 30 days a year earlier | 2.45M | 30 days to 2025-11-09 |
| Change in swaps against the same 30 days a year earlier | −25% | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Average swap (volume ÷ swaps) | $2.03K | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Average swap (volume ÷ swaps), same 30 days a year earlier | $951.45 | 30 days to 2025-11-09 |
| Confidential swaps' share of volume | 56.3% | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Funds held in NEAR Intents (TVL) | $232.43M | 2026-11-09 |
| NEAR Intents share of all DEX volume on NEAR | 92.8% | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR Intents share of all DEX volume on NEAR; the window includes April to August 2026, when DefiLlama counted only public swaps | 83.7% | 180 days to 2026-11-10 |
| intents.near share of all NEAR transactions | 16.3% | 30 days to 2026-11-11 |
**Bull case:** On 2026-11-09, NEAR Intents volume was counted under 91 token symbols on 34 chains. NEAR Intents volume was $3.76B over the last 30 days, up 58% from $2.38B in the same 30 days a year earlier. The NEAR Intents contract, intents.near, accounted for 16.3% of all NEAR transactions over the 30 days to 2026-11-11, and NEAR Intents made up 92.8% of all DEX volume on NEAR over the last 30 days.
**Bear case:** NEAR Intents settled 1.84M swaps over the 30 days to 2026-11-09, down 25% from 2.45M in the same 30 days a year earlier. The average swap (volume ÷ swaps) was $2.03K, up 113% from $951.45 in the same 30 days a year earlier. NEAR handled 19.92M transactions over the 30 days to 2026-11-11, down 85% from 132.2M in the same 30 days a year earlier. New accounts over the same days totaled 284.95K, down 96% from 6.54M a year earlier, and a median of 54.12K accounts a day signed a transaction, down 80% from a median of 265.88K a year earlier. Activity on NEAR itself need not follow Intents volume. Because Intents users never need to hold NEAR, their trading creates demand for the token mainly through the fees that buy it.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Change in NEAR transactions, 30 days to 2026-11-11 vs the same 30 days a year earlier | −85% |
| Change in new NEAR accounts, 30 days to 2026-11-11 vs the same 30 days a year earlier | −96% |
| Change in median daily active accounts, 30 days to 2026-11-11 vs the same 30 days a year earlier | −80% |
Chain activity: 30 days to 2026-11-11 against the same 30 days a year earlier.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if NEAR Intents volume over the last 30 days falls below its volume in the same 30 days a year earlier, or if its volume over the last 90 days falls below its volume in the 90 days before: cross-chain trading through NEAR would then be shrinking, not growing.
**Status:** Holding. NEAR Intents volume was $3.76B over the 30 days to 2026-11-10, up 58% from $2.38B in the same 30 days a year earlier. NEAR Intents volume over the 90 days to 2026-11-10 was $12.44B, up 73% from $7.2B in the 90 days before. Trading through NEAR Intents grew both against a year earlier and over those 90 days.
**Re-run:** Dune: the NEAR team's dashboard `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`, queries 5179085 (volume, public and confidential), 4374089 (swaps), 5157565 (volume by chain), 5157527 (volume by token) and 7586891 (TVL), each at `https://dune.com/queries/{id}`; DefiLlama `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (Intents volume on days Dune does not have, and for the DEX share) and `GET https://api.llama.fi/overview/dexs/near?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (every DEX on NEAR); NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/accounts/intents.near/stats/txns?limit=365`, `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/txn-stats?limit=365` and `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts` (active and new accounts, and transactions before v3's 365 days).
💰 2. That trading buys NEAR 💰
**Claim:** Since 2026-02-23, the NEAR Intents app and the 1Click API have sent the fees they keep to their fee wallets and used them to buy NEAR on the open market. Their operators chose this; no protocol rule requires it. The NEAR bought stays in the three fee wallets and is not burned, so it remains in total supply. Gas fees on NEAR are burned, all of them from protocol 87 on. Burn removes NEAR from total supply; buying holds it off the market.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NEAR bought by NEAR Intents buybacks | 405.2K NEAR ($1.82M) | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR bought | 1.48M NEAR | 90 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR bought, the 90 days before | 865.22K NEAR | 90 days ending 90 days before 2026-11-10 |
| Monthly growth rate of NEAR bought | +20.0% (95% range +9.8% to +31.2%) | 90 days to 2026-11-10, against the 90 days before |
| NEAR bought since buybacks began | 3.3M NEAR | 2026-02-23 to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR bought by month | 2026-02: 173K (from 2026-02-23), 2026-03: 447.4K, 2026-04: 193.9K, 2026-05: 333.3K, 2026-06: 282.7K, 2026-07: 266.8K, 2026-08: 412.2K, 2026-09: 595.1K, 2026-10: 449.5K, 2026-11: 130.4K (to 2026-11-10) | 2026-02-23 to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR Intents volume, gross fees, revenue and buybacks (USD) | $3.73B volume, $5.83M gross fees, $1.84M revenue, $1.84M buybacks | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Gross fees ÷ volume (fee rate) | 15.6 bps | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Buybacks ÷ volume (share of volume that buys NEAR) | 4.1 bps | 90 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Buybacks ÷ volume (share of volume that buys NEAR), the 90 days before | 2.4 bps | 90 days ending 90 days before 2026-11-10 |
| Buybacks ÷ gross fees (capture rate) | 31.6% | 30 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Buybacks ÷ gross fees (capture rate) | 26.7% | 90 days to 2026-11-09 |
| Buybacks ÷ gross fees (capture rate) | 21.3% | 2026-02-23 to 2026-11-09 |
| NEAR burned ÷ gas fees in NEAR (measured burn share); all are burned since protocol 87 | 83.7% | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR held in buybacks.multisignature.near | 2.3M NEAR | balance on 2026-11-12 |
| NEAR held in fefundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near (NEAR Intents app) | 2M NEAR | balance on 2026-11-12 |
| NEAR held in 1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near (1Click API) | 270.9 NEAR | balance on 2026-11-12 |
| NEAR held in the three fee wallets | 4.3M NEAR | balance on 2026-11-12 |
| Change of the three wallets' combined balance | 408.9K NEAR | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR bought as DefiLlama counts it, same 30 days | 405.2K NEAR | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Largest daily gap: NEAR bought since the window began less the wallets' gain since then | 430.9 NEAR | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
**How the buying works.** The intents.near contract itself charges 1 pip (0.0001%) a swap. The money that buys NEAR comes from the fees of two apps on top of it, the near-intents.org app and the 1Click API. Their fees reach three wallets: `fefundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near`, `1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near` and `buybacks.multisignature.near`. The NEAR bought is held in these three wallets (each balance is in the table above), off the market. It is not burned, so it stays in total supply (CoinGecko's circulating supply still counts it).
| Fact | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| intents.near contract | 1 pip (0.0001%) a swap | NEAR Intents docs, Fees (2026-11-03) |
| near-intents.org app | 0.2% a swap | NEAR Intents docs, Fees (2026-11-03) |
| 1Click API | about 0.2–0.25% on most routes | NEAR Intents docs, Fees (2026-11-03) |
**DefiLlama's count against the wallets.** DefiLlama counts NEAR arriving at all three fee wallets as bought, so its total can exceed the buyback wallet's balance. Over the 30 days to 2026-11-10, DefiLlama counts 405.2K NEAR as bought, and the three wallets' combined balance changed by 408.9K NEAR on chain; DefiLlama's count is 0.9% below it.
**Bull case:** NEAR Intents fees bought 405.2K NEAR over the last 30 days. NEAR bought over the last 90 days was 1.48M NEAR, up 71% from 865.22K NEAR in the 90 days before, a pace of 20.0% growth a month (95% range +9.8% to +31.2% a month).
**Bear case:** 31.6% of NEAR Intents fees were spent buying NEAR over the 30 days to 2026-11-09. The 4.3M NEAR held in the three fee wallets on 2026-11-12 is not burned, so it is still in total supply. The buying depends on the operators keeping their fee switch on, and no protocol rule makes them. Fees kept by partners and front ends never buy NEAR, and the NEAR bought is not burned, so it can be sold.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Share of Intents fees that buys NEAR, 30 days to 2026-11-09 | 31.6% |
| NEAR held in the three fee wallets, still in total supply | 4.3M NEAR |
Share of fees: 30 days to 2026-11-09. NEAR held: balance on 2026-11-12.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if, over 30 days, NEAR Intents fees buy no NEAR, the three fee wallets lose NEAR, or on any day the wallets' gain since the window began falls short of the NEAR bought since then by more than 5% of the 30 days' buying. The last two would mean the NEAR bought was sold or moved out.
**Status:** Holding. In the 30 days to 2026-11-10, NEAR Intents fees bought 405.2K NEAR and the three fee wallets gained 408.9K NEAR. On the day the gap was largest, the wallets had gained 430.9 NEAR less than the NEAR bought since the window began, 0.1% of the 30 days' buying, below the 5% limit. The buying continues, and the NEAR bought is still held.
**Re-run:** Dune query 6162763 on the NEAR team's dashboard `https://dune.com/near/near-intents` (gross fees, with volume from query 5179085); DefiLlama `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyFees&excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (gross fees on days Dune does not have), the same with `dataType=dailyRevenue` (revenue) and `dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue` (buybacks), and `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (gas fees); NEAR archival RPC `POST https://archival-rpc.mainnet.fastnear.com` `block` with `{"block_id":}` at each epoch boundary (NEAR burned, for the measured burn share); CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (daily price; older days: DefiLlama `GET https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:near?start={unix}&span=500&period=1d&searchWidth=600`); NEAR RPC `view_account` on each of the three fee wallets (today's balance) and NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/accounts//stats/balance?limit=365` (each past day's balance, behind the 30-day change and the NEAR bought over the same days).
📉 3. New supply is growing more slowly 📉
**Claim:** Max issuance was halved from 5% to 2.5% a year in October 2025, and NEAR's vesting schedule ended on 2025-10-13. HSP-029, a House of Stake proposal, would ramp max issuance down to 1.6% over 2 years, starting 90 days after its vote's timelock ends; it changes issuance only once it is approved and validators adopt it in a protocol upgrade.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Max issuance (5% before 2025-10-29) | 2.5% a year | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| NEAR minted, measured from block headers | 2.7M NEAR | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Measured issuance, yearly rate (NEAR minted ÷ supply at the window's start) | 2.49% | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR minted, measured from block headers | 32.2M NEAR | 365 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Measured issuance, yearly rate (NEAR minted ÷ supply at the window's start) | 2.52% | 365 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Total supply | 1.31B NEAR | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| Total supply growth | 2.48% | 365 days to 2026-11-12 |
| New supply absorbed: (burned + bought) ÷ minted | 16.04% (0.93% burned, 15.11% bought) | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| New supply absorbed | 19.46% (0.97% burned, 18.49% bought) | 90 days to 2026-11-10 |
| New supply absorbed | 15.26% (1.07% burned, 14.19% bought) | 2026-02-23 to 2026-11-10 |
| New supply absorbed | 11.70% (1.51% burned, 10.19% bought) | 365 days to 2026-11-10 |
| New supply absorbed by month | 2025-10: 1.6%, 2025-11: 3.1%, 2025-12: 2.7%, 2026-01: 2.5%, 2026-02: 9.5%, 2026-03: 18.8%, 2026-04: 8.0%, 2026-05: 12.9%, 2026-06: 11.5%, 2026-07: 10.4%, 2026-08: 15.7%, 2026-09: 23.3%, 2026-10: 17.4%, 2026-11: 15.4% (10 of 30 days) | calendar months to 2026-11-10 |
| Staked share of total supply | 44.4% | epoch 4962 |
| Gross staking yield, before validator commission (90% of the NEAR minted goes to stakers) | 5.0% | 30 days to 2026-11-10; stake of epoch 4962 |
| Staking yield after supply growth (minted less burned) | 2.51% | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| NEAR held by treasury.near | 1.6M NEAR | end of 2026-11-10 |
| Gain of treasury.near against its 10% share of NEAR minted | 270K NEAR against 268.2K NEAR | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| FDV ÷ market cap | 1.00 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| HSP-029 vote | Passed | reading of 2026-11-12 |
**HSP-029.** HSP-029 proposes ramping max issuance to 1.6% over 2 years, starting 90 days after its vote's timelock ends. The vote passed: 99.97% of the veNEAR that voted was for it. It is in a timelock until 2026-11-16 16:48 UTC, while the council can still veto it. (`get_proposal` on `vote.dao`, reading of 2026-11-12.) Even after the vote, issuance changes only once validators adopt it in a protocol upgrade.
**Full burn.** Protocol 87 (HSP-027) removes the gas rebate to contracts, so all gas is burned. Mainnet runs protocol 88; testnet runs 88. Before protocol 87, the protocol returned part of contract-call gas to the contract (`burnt_gas_reward`). Measured over the 30 days to 2026-11-10, 83.7% of all gas fees were burned; days in the window before mainnet ran protocol 87 still paid part of contract-call gas to contracts, and DefiLlama's fee count can differ from the burn read from block headers.
**Bull case:** Max issuance is 2.5% a year, down from 5% before 2025-10-29. HSP-029, the proposal to lower max issuance to 1.6% a year, has the vote status **Passed**.
**Bear case:** Measured issuance ran at 2.49% a year over the last 30 days, and the NEAR burned plus bought equaled 16.0% of the NEAR minted over the same days, so the NEAR on the market grew. The protocol treasury (treasury.near) held 28.6M NEAR on 2025-11-12 and 1.6M NEAR on 2026-11-10. Issuance adds NEAR every epoch, so total supply grows unless burn exceeds it, and the NEAR on the market grows unless burn plus buybacks exceed it. 10% of the NEAR minted goes to the protocol treasury, a multisig that can send it on to other accounts; that NEAR is not burned and stays in total supply. HSP-029 lowers issuance only after validators adopt it in a protocol upgrade.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Measured issuance, last 30 days, yearly rate | 2.49% |
| Total supply growth, 12 months to 2026-11-12 | 2.48% |
| Share of NEAR minted that was burned + bought, last 30 days | 16.0% |
| Protocol treasury NEAR, change since 2025-11-12 | −94% |
Issuance and absorption: 30 days to 2026-11-10. Supply growth: 365 days to 2026-11-12.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if the HSP-029 vote fails or is vetoed, if max issuance rises above 2.5% a year again, or if NEAR burned plus bought equals a smaller share of the NEAR minted over the last 90 days than over the 90 days before.
**Status:** Holding. Max issuance is 2.5% a year. For HSP-029, the vote passed: 99.97% of the veNEAR that voted was for it. It is in a timelock until 2026-11-16 16:48 UTC, while the council can still veto it. NEAR burned plus bought equaled 19.5% of the NEAR minted over the 90 days to 2026-11-10, up from 11.6% in the 90 days before.
**Re-run:** NEAR RPC `EXPERIMENTAL_protocol_config`, fields `max_inflation_rate` and `transaction_costs.burnt_gas_reward` (the gas rebate to contracts); NEAR RPC `block` with `{"finality":"final"}` (today's total supply) and `status` on mainnet and testnet (protocol versions); DefiLlama `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyHoldersRevenue&excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (buybacks, for NEAR bought) and `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` (gas fees, for the measured burn share); CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (daily price; older days: DefiLlama `GET https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:near?start={unix}&span=500&period=1d&searchWidth=600`), for NEAR bought and gas fees in NEAR; NEAR archival RPC `POST https://archival-rpc.mainnet.fastnear.com` `block` with `{"block_id":}` at each epoch boundary for NEAR minted and burned (see Formulas); `query` `call_function` `get_proposal` on `vote.dao` with `{"proposal_id":29}`; NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/block-stats?limit=365` (daily total supply; `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts` for older days); NEAR RPC `validators` with `[null]` (staked share and gross yield); `query` `view_account` on `treasury.near` (today's balance) and NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/accounts/treasury.near/stats/balance?limit=365` (past days); CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` (FDV ÷ market cap).
📐 4. Valuation: What today's price requires of buybacks 📐
**Claim:** Two monthly growth rates of NEAR bought are compared: the rate burn plus buybacks need to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years, at today's price and with the burn held at its current rate, and the rate measured over the last 90 days against the 90 days before, with its 95% range. More NEAR bought needs more NEAR Intents volume or a larger share of that volume spent buying NEAR.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Monthly growth rate of NEAR bought | +20.0% (95% range +9.8% to +31.2%) | 90 days to 2026-11-10, against the 90 days before |
| Monthly growth rate of NEAR bought needed for burn + buybacks to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years, burn held at its current rate | +5.0% (+79% a year) | from the 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Market cap | $4.55B | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| Burn + buybacks a year, run rate | $18.16M | 30 days to 2026-11-10, × 365 ÷ 30, at the price of 2026-11-12 |
| Market cap ÷ (burn + buybacks a year) | 251× | 30 days to 2026-11-10, × 365 ÷ 30, at the price of 2026-11-12 |
| Burn + buybacks a year ÷ market cap (max issuance 2.5%) | 0.40% | 30 days to 2026-11-10, × 365 ÷ 30, at the price of 2026-11-12 |
| Market cap ÷ network revenue (Intents revenue + gas fees), 30 days annualized | 200× | on 2026-11-10 |
| Same multiple, median and range | 277× (157× to 553×) | since 2026-03-02 |
| Market cap at that median and range on the latest yearly network revenue (against its own history, not a fair value) | $6.58B ($3.73B to $13.16B) | revenue of the 30 days to 2026-11-10, multiples since 2026-03-02 |
| Break-even multiple: NEAR minted ÷ (NEAR burned + bought) | 6.24× | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Intents volume a day at which burn + buybacks match issuance | $635.5M (average over the same days $125.26M) | 30 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Break-even multiple: NEAR minted ÷ (NEAR burned + bought) | 5.14× | 90 days to 2026-11-10 |
| Intents volume a day at which burn + buybacks match issuance | $750.83M (average over the same days $138.22M) | 90 days to 2026-11-10 |
**Scenarios** (month by month from the 30 days to 2026-11-10, with the price and the max issuance rate held at today's level and the burn at its current rate):
| Scenario | Growth of NEAR bought | Month burn + buybacks reach issuance | Share of issuance absorbed in month 36 | Intents volume a year in month 36 |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| No growth | No growth | Not by month 36 | 19% | $45.72B (1.0× the 30-day run rate) |
| Growth needed | +5.0% a month for 35 months (+79% a year, 5.5× in total) | Month 36 | 100% | $250.2B (5.5× the 30-day run rate) |
| 90-day pace for 12 months | +20.0% a month for 12 months (+791% a year, 8.9× in total) | Month 11 | 162% | $407.31B (8.9× the 30-day run rate) |
The needed growth is NEAR bought's alone, so it compares directly with its measured growth; it holds the price and the max issuance rate at today's level and the burn at its current rate while supply keeps growing. The growth-needed scenario is left out while no growth is needed or no growth reaches issuance, and the 90-day pace while it is not measured. At a higher price the same buyback dollars buy less NEAR, so more growth is needed; the burn does not depend on price, because gas is paid in NEAR. The Valuation page shows the growth needed at 4 prices and 3 horizons, and a model where the reader can change the price, the monthly growth of NEAR bought and of gas fees, and the max issuance (HSP-029).
**Bull case:** NEAR bought over the last 90 days was 1.48M NEAR, up 71% from 865.22K NEAR in the 90 days before, a pace of 20.0% growth a month (95% range +9.8% to +31.2% a month), faster than the 5.0% a month needed for burn plus buybacks to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years. On 2026-11-10, NEAR's market cap was 200× its yearly network revenue (Intents revenue plus gas fees over the last 30 days, annualized), below the 277× median of the same multiple since 2026-03-02.
**Bear case:** NEAR's market cap is 251× the yearly value of NEAR burned and bought (the last 30 days, annualized at today's price). For burn plus buybacks to match the NEAR minted at today's price, daily Intents volume would need to be 5.1× its average over the last 30 days. The measured growth of NEAR bought covers only the buying since February 2026, and at a higher price the same fees buy less NEAR, so the growth needed rises with the price.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Market cap ÷ (burn + buybacks a year) | 251× |
| Burn + buybacks a year ÷ market cap (against max issuance of 2.5% a year) | 0.40% |
| Intents volume a day at which burn + buybacks would match the NEAR minted (average over the last 30 days: $125.26M) | $635.5M |
Burn and buybacks: 30 days to 2026-11-10, at the NEAR price of 2026-11-12.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if even the top of the 95% range of NEAR bought's monthly growth rate (the last 90 days against the 90 days before) is below the monthly growth rate needed for burn plus buybacks to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years, at today's price and with the burn held at its current rate. While the growth needed falls inside that range, the check is too close to call.
**Status:** Holding. NEAR bought in the 90 days to 2026-11-10 was 1.48M NEAR, up 71% from 865.22K NEAR in the 90 days before, a pace of 20.0% growth a month (95% range +9.8% to +31.2% a month); for burn plus buybacks to match monthly issuance by the end of 3 years, NEAR bought needs 5.0% growth a month. NEAR bought is growing faster than needed at today's price.
**Re-run:** `GET /api/model` on the dashboard returns the same scenarios month by month as CSV, with the inputs they start from. The inputs come from the requests in sections 1 to 3, CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` (price and market cap) and `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (`market_caps`, the daily market cap behind the revenue multiple).
⚡ 5. Technology: The chain can carry the usage ⚡
**Claim:** NEAR finalizes blocks within seconds and charges low gas fees, so the NEAR side of a cross-chain trade settles quickly and cheaply. Protocol upgrades ship through nearcore releases.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Time to finality | ~1.2 s, deterministic | Chainspect, NEAR mainnet (2026-10-21) |
| Block time, measured from block heights and timestamps | ~0.6 s | average over the last 13 minutes of samples, 2026-11-12 |
| Protocol upgrades shipped: stable nearcore releases with a new minor version (x.y.0) | 5: 2.10.0, 2.11.0, 2.12.0, 2.13.0, 2.14.0 | 365 days to 2026-11-12 |
| Simple transfer (0.446 Tgas) | 0.0000446 NEAR ($0.000155) | gas price reading of 2026-11-12, NEAR price reading of 2026-11-12 |
| Shards | 10 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| Protocol version | mainnet 88, testnet 88 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| nearcore on mainnet | 2.14.0 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
| NEAR price | $3.47 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
A nearcore release reaches mainnet once validators upgrade to it; mainnet runs protocol 88.
Dated facts that no free API returns, each with its source:
| Fact | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Stateless validation | Live since August 2024 (protocol 69) | nearcore 2.0.0 (checked 2026-10-21) |
| Lab benchmark | 1M TPS on 70 shards, 140 nodes, native transfers | NEAR One blog (2025-12-11) |
| Peak recorded on mainnet | 4,135 TPS (100-block window) | Chainspect (checked 2026-10-21) |
| Post-quantum keys | ML-DSA-65 keys live since July 2026; in-contract verification added in protocol 87; mainnet runs protocol 88 | nearcore 2.13.0; nearcore 2.14.0, released 2026-10-26; mainnet protocol 88 (NEAR RPC status, checked 2026-11-11) |
| SPICE (200 ms blocks) | In development | nearcore version.rs (checked 2026-10-21) |
NEAR account features, from docs.near.org:
| Fact | Value | Source |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Chain Signatures | An MPC network (v1.signer) lets a NEAR account, contracts included, sign native transactions for Bitcoin, EVM chains, Solana and others | docs.near.org, Chain Signatures (2026-11-03) |
| Named accounts | Human-readable account names such as alice.near, beside 64-character implicit accounts | docs.near.org, Access keys (2026-11-03) |
| Function-call keys | Keys limited to one contract, optionally to a list of its methods, with a gas allowance | docs.near.org, Access keys (2026-11-03) |
| Relayer-paid gas | Meta transactions (NEP-366): a relayer pays the gas, so users need no NEAR to transact | docs.near.org, Meta transactions (2026-11-03) |
**Bull case:** A simple NEAR transfer costs $0.000155 at the gas price read 2026-11-12 08:43 UTC. Mainnet runs protocol 88, which burns all gas fees instead of paying part of them to contracts.
**Bear case:** 24.9K NEAR of gas fees was burned over the last 30 days, equal to 0.9% of the NEAR minted over the same days. Cheap transactions cut both ways: the lower the gas fees, the less NEAR the burn removes against issuance.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| NEAR burned by gas fees, last 30 days | 24.9K NEAR |
| Share of NEAR minted that was burned, last 30 days | 0.9% |
30 days to 2026-11-10.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if a simple NEAR transfer costs more than $0.01 at the latest gas price read, because trades would then stop settling cheaply.
**Status:** Holding. A simple NEAR transfer costs $0.000155 at the gas price read 2026-11-12 08:43 UTC, below the $0.01 limit; it would have to rise 65× to pass it.
**Re-run:** NEAR RPC `block` with `{"finality":"final"}` (`gas_price`; the worker also samples the latest final block's height and time every minute, for the block time), `EXPERIMENTAL_protocol_config` (`shard_layout`) and `status` on mainnet and testnet (protocol and nearcore versions); `GET https://api.github.com/repos/near/nearcore/releases?per_page=50`; CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` (NEAR price, for the transfer cost in USD); NEAR archival RPC `POST https://archival-rpc.mainnet.fastnear.com` `block` with `{"block_id":}` at each epoch boundary (NEAR burned and minted).
🛡️ 6. Network: No single party controls the network 🛡️
**Claim:** Independent validators secure NEAR, and anyone with enough stake can join: a chunk-validator seat needs only a fixed minimum share of total stake.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| Active validators | 354 (100 produce blocks) | epoch 4962 |
| Chunk-validator seat: total stake × `minimum_stake_ratio` | 9.3K NEAR ($32.35K) | epoch 4962 |
| Block-producer seat: the smallest stake among block producers | 634.4K NEAR | epoch 4962 |
| Nakamoto coefficient: validators that together hold more than a third of stake | 9 | epoch 4962 |
| Staked share of total supply | 44.4% | epoch 4962 |
**Bull case:** 354 validators (staking pools) are active, and a chunk-validator seat needs 9.3K NEAR, 1.5% of the stake a block-producer seat needs.
**Bear case:** The 9 largest staking pools together hold more than 33.3% of all stake, and only 100 of the 354 produce blocks. One operator can run several pools, so fewer separate parties may stand behind them. A group holding more than 33.3% of all stake can halt finality if it acts together, and block-producer seats go to the largest stakes.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| Validators (staking pools) needed to hold more than 33.3% of stake | 9 |
| Block-producer seat, smallest stake of the 100 block producers | 634.4K NEAR |
Validator set of epoch 4962.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if fewer than 8 validators together hold more than a third of all stake, because a group that small could halt finality by acting together. Validators are counted by staking pool, and one operator can run several pools, so the number of separate parties can be lower.
**Status:** Holding. In the latest epoch, the 9 largest of 354 validators together hold more than a third of all stake, 1 validator above the floor of 8.
**Re-run:** NEAR RPC `validators` with `[null]` (block producers are those with `num_expected_blocks` > 0), `EXPERIMENTAL_protocol_config` (`minimum_stake_ratio`) and `block` with `{"finality":"final"}` (total supply, for the staked share); CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` (NEAR price, for the seat in USD).
🔓 7. Peers: No supply overhang left to unlock 🔓
**Claim:** NEAR's vesting schedule ended on 2025-10-13, so no scheduled unlocks remain. NEAR's supply still grows through issuance, so this thesis compares its yearly circulating-supply growth with that of the coins ranked above it.
| Evidence | Value | Window |
| --- | --- | --- |
| NEAR circulating supply growth (CoinGecko market cap ÷ price) | +2.5% | 365 days to 2026-11-12 |
| Median of the 16 larger coins with a year of history, not dollar-pegged | +1.5% | 365 days to 2026-11-12 |
| FDV ÷ market cap for NEAR | 1.00 | reading of 2026-11-12 |
**Bull case:** NEAR's FDV is 1.00× its market cap, so no NEAR is left to unlock, while 8 of the 16 larger coins that are not dollar-pegged still have FDV above market cap (supply not yet circulating).
**Bear case:** NEAR's circulating supply grew 2.5% over 12 months, above the 1.5% median circulating supply growth of the 16 larger coins with a year of history, dollar-pegged coins left out; 7 of them had a higher supply growth rate than NEAR. NEAR minted over the last 12 months came to 2.52% of total supply at the window's start. Having no unlocks left does not mean no new supply: issuance still adds NEAR every year. Only burn offsets it in circulating supply, because the NEAR bought still counts as circulating. FDV ÷ market cap cannot show this, because newly issued NEAR adds to both.
| Bear case | Value |
| --- | --- |
| NEAR minted, last 12 months, share of supply | 2.52% |
NEAR minted: 365 days to 2026-11-10.
**Breaking point:** The thesis breaks if NEAR's circulating supply grows faster over 12 months than the median circulating supply growth of the coins ranked above it, leaving out dollar-pegged coins.
**Status:** Broken. NEAR's circulating supply grew 2.5% over 12 months; the median circulating supply growth of the 16 larger coins with a year of history, dollar-pegged coins left out, was 1.5%. NEAR's supply growth is above that median, so having no tokens left to unlock does not keep its supply growth low.
**Re-run:** CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` (`fully_diluted_valuation` ÷ `market_cap`; `current_price` and `price_change_percentage_1y_in_currency` leave out dollar-pegged coins) and `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{id}/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (`market_caps` ÷ `prices`; the public API serves at most 365 days); NEAR archival RPC `POST https://archival-rpc.mainnet.fastnear.com` `block` with `{"block_id":}` at each epoch boundary (NEAR minted); NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/block-stats?limit=365` and `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts` (total supply at the window's start, for NEAR minted as a share of supply).
🧪 Test: does NEAR Intents volume lead NEAR's price or usage? 🧪
**Result:** 0 of 17 tests are significant at 5% after the Holm correction: no test finds a link, same-week or lagged, in either direction.
**Sample:** 76 weekly changes from 2025-06-03 to 2026-11-10, in 7-day blocks ending on 2026-11-10, from the first week with at least $25M of Intents volume. NEAR's weekly return moved 1.38× the market's (the average of BTC and ETH); that market part is removed before NEAR's return is tested against Intents volume, while the active-accounts tests use NEAR's whole return.
| Test | Lag | Correlation | p | p, adjusted |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| Intents volume growth moves with NEAR's return beyond the market | same week | +0.11 | 0.329 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads NEAR's return beyond the market | 1 wk | +0.05 | 0.623 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads NEAR's return beyond the market | 2 wk | +0.01 | 0.898 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads NEAR's return beyond the market | 3 wk | −0.10 | 0.399 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads NEAR's return beyond the market | 4 wk | +0.09 | 0.459 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return beyond the market leads Intents volume growth | 1 wk | +0.01 | 0.916 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return beyond the market leads Intents volume growth | 2 wk | 0.00 | 0.973 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return beyond the market leads Intents volume growth | 3 wk | −0.14 | 0.204 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return beyond the market leads Intents volume growth | 4 wk | −0.21 | 0.071 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads active-accounts growth | 1 wk | +0.09 | 0.451 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads active-accounts growth | 2 wk | +0.12 | 0.325 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads active-accounts growth | 3 wk | −0.10 | 0.401 | 1.000 |
| Intents volume growth leads active-accounts growth | 4 wk | +0.09 | 0.436 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return leads active-accounts growth | 1 wk | −0.12 | 0.291 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return leads active-accounts growth | 2 wk | +0.18 | 0.113 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return leads active-accounts growth | 3 wk | −0.09 | 0.452 | 1.000 |
| NEAR's return leads active-accounts growth | 4 wk | −0.03 | 0.824 | 1.000 |
**Re-run:** DefiLlama `GET https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:{near|bitcoin|ethereum}?start={unix}&span=500&period=1d&searchWidth=600` (daily prices from 2024-11-01), Intents volume and NearBlocks active accounts as in section 1.
🚫 What could not be computed 🚫
- **Days since March 2026 from the NEAR BigQuery public dataset (`bigquery-public-data.crypto_near_mainnet_us`).** The dataset is loaded from NEAR Lake, which NEAR's docs say "was deprecated on March 24, 2026 and no longer indexes new blocks" (docs.near.org/data-infrastructure/big-query). Its loader repository (github.com/near/near-public-lakehouse) names no other source. The thesis needs windows of 30 to 365 days ending on the data-through day, and buybacks began on 2026-02-23. Daily transactions and active and new accounts therefore come from NearBlocks, whose daily transactions and active accounts match the figures NEAR reported for Q2 2026 (854K transactions and 121K active accounts a day).
- **Per-swap NEAR Intents data from the Intents Explorer API.** It needs a JWT from the partner dashboard. Volume, swaps, fees, TVL and volume by chain and token come from the daily totals on the NEAR team's Dune dashboard, and revenue and buybacks from DefiLlama, so single swap sizes, routes and solvers are not measured.
- **Accounts that swapped through NEAR Intents.** No query on the NEAR team's Dune dashboard counts them by day, and NearBlocks' count covers public swaps only, leaving out confidential swaps (56.3% of volume over the 30 days to 2026-11-09), so it is not used.
- **Contract usage beyond `intents.near`.** The free sources give daily transactions of named contracts, not a ranking of all contracts; the dashboard measures the one contract the thesis rests on.
- **Burn and issuance before 2025-10-01.** The stored epoch block headers start that day; longer windows show "—" until the stored epochs cover them.
- **NEAR held from buybacks that is later sold.** The fee wallets' balances are measured, but a sale cannot be told apart from another outflow without labeling every counterparty.
🔁 How to re-run the data 🔁
All sources are free and public. Run `npm run ingest` to rebuild the dashboard's database with every source's full history, or send single requests:
| Data | Request |
| --- | --- |
| Every number in this document | `npm ci` and `pip install -r requirements.txt` (the Dune reader), then `npm run ingest` (about 5 minutes from an empty database: block headers older than the committed snapshot are copied from it, as they never change; about 55 minutes without it), then `npm run dev` and, in a second terminal, `npm run thesis`; all in one step, with a new snapshot: `npm run rebuild`; offline from the committed snapshot: `npm run verify` |
| The SQL behind every chart | `/dashboard/queries` on the dashboard, `GET /api/query/{id}` (add `?format=csv` for CSV), or `npm run query -- {id}` (add `--db snapshot/dashboard.db` for the snapshot) |
| Market cap, FDV, rank | `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/markets?vs_currency=usd&order=market_cap_desc&per_page=100&page=1&price_change_percentage=1y` |
| Daily NEAR price and market cap | CoinGecko `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/near/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (daily price; older days: DefiLlama `GET https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:near?start={unix}&span=500&period=1d&searchWidth=600`) |
| Daily NEAR, BTC and ETH prices for the lead-lag test | `GET https://coins.llama.fi/chart/coingecko:near?start={unix}&span=500&period=1d&searchWidth=600`, then `bitcoin` and `ethereum` (at most 500 points a request) |
| Peer circulating supply | `GET https://api.coingecko.com/api/v3/coins/{id}/market_chart?vs_currency=usd&days=365&interval=daily` (the public API serves at most 365 days) |
| Max issuance rate, shards, contract gas rebate | `POST https://free.rpc.fastnear.com` with `{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"EXPERIMENTAL_protocol_config","params":{"finality":"final"}}`. `protocol_reward_rate` reads [0, 1], a fraction equal to 0, but nearcore hard-codes the 10% treasury share. |
| Total supply, gas price | Same endpoint, `block` with `{"finality":"final"}` |
| NEAR minted and burned per epoch | `POST https://archival-rpc.mainnet.fastnear.com` with `{"jsonrpc":"2.0","id":1,"method":"block","params":{"block_id":}}` for the three blocks named under Formulas; each epoch's previous block is read by the hash in the next block's `prev_hash` |
| Validators, stake | Same endpoint as the max issuance rate, `validators` with `[null]` |
| Protocol status | `status` on `https://free.rpc.fastnear.com` and `https://rpc.testnet.fastnear.com` |
| nearcore releases (protocol upgrades shipped) | `GET https://api.github.com/repos/near/nearcore/releases?per_page=50` |
| Fee wallet balances | `query` with `{"request_type":"view_account","finality":"final","account_id":""}` for buybacks.multisignature.near, fefundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near and 1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near; past days: NearBlocks `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/accounts//stats/balance?limit=365` |
| Protocol treasury balance | The same two requests for treasury.near |
| HSP-029 vote | `query` with `{"request_type":"call_function","finality":"final","account_id":"vote.dao","method_name":"get_proposal","args_base64":"eyJwcm9wb3NhbF9pZCI6Mjl9"}` (`{"proposal_id":29}`) |
| NEAR Intents daily volume, public and confidential | Dune query 5179085 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/5179085` |
| NEAR Intents daily swaps | Dune query 4374089 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/4374089` |
| NEAR Intents daily gross fees | Dune query 6162763 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/6162763` |
| NEAR Intents fees since launch for the 100 largest channels above $10 | Dune query 6162721 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/6162721` |
| NEAR Intents daily volume by token | Dune query 5157527 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/5157527` |
| NEAR Intents daily volume by chain | Dune query 5157565 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/5157565` |
| NEAR Intents daily TVL, public and confidential | Dune query 7586891 on `https://dune.com/near/near-intents`: SQL and latest result at `https://dune.com/queries/7586891` |
| Intents volume on days Dune does not have | `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/dexs/near-intents?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` |
| Intents revenue, buybacks (and gross fees on days Dune does not have) | `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near-intents?dataType=dailyRevenue&excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true`, then with `dailyHoldersRevenue` and `dailyFees` |
| DEX volume on NEAR | `GET https://api.llama.fi/overview/dexs/near?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` |
| Gas fees | `GET https://api.llama.fi/summary/fees/near?excludeTotalDataChartBreakdown=true` |
| TVL, stablecoins on NEAR | `GET https://api.llama.fi/v2/historicalChainTvl/Near`, `GET https://stablecoins.llama.fi/stablecoincharts/Near` |
| Daily intents.near transactions | `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/accounts/intents.near/stats/txns?limit=365` |
| Last day NearBlocks has finished its daily figures | `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/sync/status/daily-stats` |
| Transactions, fees, total supply, relayed transactions and relayed accounts | `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v3/txn-stats`, `/v3/block-stats` and `/v3/address-stats`, each with `?limit=365` (the most it serves) |
| Active and new accounts (every day); transactions, fees and supply before v3's window | `GET https://api.nearblocks.io/v1/charts` |
| Developers | `https://data.opendevdata.org/manifest.json`, `eco_mads.parquet` (ids: NEAR 2817, Ethereum 2, Solana 391, Bitcoin 1) |
🧮 Formulas 🧮
- Every flow window ends on `dataThrough`, the last day that Intents volume, Intents buybacks, gas fees and the NEAR price all have. A metric built on another series (NEAR minted and burned, DEX volume) shows "—" unless that series has data on every day of the window. Metrics on Intents gross fees and revenue end on the last day both have, at most `dataThrough` and usually a day before it, and show "—" unless every day of their window is stored. NearBlocks metrics end on the last day their own series share. NEAR Intents swaps, average swap and confidential share, from Dune alone, end on the last day Dune's swaps and confidential volume both have, at most `dataThrough`.
- The worker keeps DefiLlama's flow series only through the day before yesterday (UTC), because DefiLlama finishes a day's total during the next day.
- NEAR bought each day = that day's Intents buybacks (USD) ÷ that day's NEAR price. Gas fees in NEAR = that day's gas fees (USD) ÷ that day's price.
- Per epoch, from block headers: S is a block's `total_supply` and B is the sum of `balance_burnt` over the chunks that block produced (`height_included` equal to its height). NEAR burned = S(first block) − S(last block) + B(first block). NEAR minted = S(first block) − S(last block of the previous epoch) + B(first block); it is the reward for the epoch before. Each epoch is spread over the UTC days it covers in proportion to time, and only fully covered days are kept.
- Measured burn share = NEAR burned ÷ gas fees in NEAR over the same 30 days.
- Measured issuance rate = NEAR minted over 30 (or 365) days × 365 ÷ the days ÷ total supply at the window's start.
- New supply absorbed = (NEAR burned + NEAR bought) ÷ NEAR minted, over the same days: 30 days, 90 days, from 2026-02-23 through `dataThrough`, 365 days, and each calendar month. Burned NEAR leaves total supply. Bought NEAR is held in the three fee wallets, off the market; it is not burned, so it stays in total supply (CoinGecko's circulating supply still counts it). The supply breaking point compares the 90 days to `dataThrough` with the 90 days before.
- NEAR Intents volume and gross fees each day = the NEAR team's Dune value for that day, or DefiLlama's on a day Dune does not have. Dune keeps the days before the day it ran the query and drops one more day of fees, since a run's newest day of fees is still filling. DefiLlama's fees copy Dune's, that day included, so DefiLlama's newest day of fees is left out too.
- Fee chain, in four steps, over the 30 and 90 days to the last day Intents fees and revenue both have: NEAR Intents volume, the gross fees charged on it, the revenue kept from those fees (DefiLlama `dailyRevenue`), and the buybacks paid from that revenue (`dailyHoldersRevenue`). Fee rate = gross fees ÷ volume; fees per $1M swapped = fee rate × 1,000,000. Capture rate (share of fees that buys NEAR) = buybacks ÷ gross fees, also from 2026-02-23 to that day. Share of volume that buys NEAR = buybacks ÷ volume; it needs no fees, so its windows (the 90-day rows, break-even and the projections) end on `dataThrough`.
- Share of DEX volume = DefiLlama's NEAR Intents volume ÷ the volume of every DEX DefiLlama tracks on NEAR, which includes NEAR Intents, over 30 and 180 days; both from DefiLlama, so they count the same swaps.
- Swaps, public and confidential, compare the 30-day total with the same 30 days a year earlier. Average swap = volume ÷ swaps over the same 30 days. Confidential share = confidential volume ÷ all volume, over 30 days and in 7-day blocks.
- Chain mix and stablecoin share: Dune counts each swap's volume once, under one token and its chain, so the shares add up to 100%. Stablecoin share = volume under the symbols in `STABLECOIN_SYMBOLS` (`src/config/intents.ts`) ÷ all volume.
- Share of transactions = intents.near transactions over 30 days ÷ all NEAR transactions over the same 30 days, ending on the last day both NearBlocks series have.
- Chain activity: transactions and new accounts compare the 30-day total with the same 30 days a year earlier. Active accounts compare the median daily count of the 30 days with the median of the same 30 days a year earlier.
- Monthly growth rate of NEAR bought = (1 + the change of NEAR bought over the 90 days to `dataThrough` against the 90 days before)^(365 ÷ 12 ÷ 90) − 1, a month being 365 ÷ 12 days as in the projection.
- Its 95% range = the 2.5% and 97.5% quantiles of the same rate over 9,999 draws, each rebuilding both 90-day windows from stationary blocks of their own days (7 days long on average, wrapping at the end, seed 20260223). The valuation breaking point holds while the whole range is at or above the growth needed, breaks while all of it is below, and is too close to call in between.
- Growth needed = the monthly growth of NEAR bought, with the burn held at its starting rate, at which NEAR burned plus bought equals issuance in month 36 of a month-by-month projection (found by bisection). The projection starts from the buyback dollars of the 30 days to `dataThrough`, converted at today's price (the NEAR they buy while the price holds). The burn starts from the same 30 days' gas fees in NEAR × the share burned: all of it once mainnet pays no gas to contracts (`burnt_gas_reward` 0), the measured burn share before that. Both are scaled to a month (× 365 ÷ 30 ÷ 12). Issuance each month = total supply at the month's start × the max issuance rate ÷ 12, starting from today's total supply (NEAR RPC `block`), not from the NEAR minted. The projection holds the price and the max issuance rate fixed, adds issuance to supply and removes the burn.
- Run rate = (NEAR burned + NEAR bought over the 30 days to `dataThrough`) × 365 ÷ 30 × today's price. Market cap ÷ (burn + buybacks a year) = market cap ÷ run rate. (Burn + buybacks a year) ÷ market cap = run rate ÷ market cap.
- Market cap ÷ network revenue = each day's market cap ÷ ((NEAR Intents revenue + gas fees over the 30 days to that day) × 365 ÷ 30), from the first 30-day window that starts on or after the first day of the first month with Intents revenue on every day. Market cap at its lowest, median and highest value = that multiple × the yearly revenue behind the latest one: a range against NEAR's own history, not a fair value.
- Break-even, over 30 and 90 days: multiple = NEAR minted ÷ (NEAR burned + NEAR bought). Needed NEAR = NEAR minted − NEAR burned (not below 0). Intents volume a day at which burn + buybacks match issuance = needed NEAR × today's price ÷ the window's share of volume that buys NEAR ÷ its days. It is compared with the window's Intents volume ÷ its days.
- Fee wallets: `amount` + `locked` from `view_account` for buybacks.multisignature.near, fefundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near and 1csfundsadmin.sputnik-dao.near; today keeps its last reading. Each finished day since 2026-02-23 is NearBlocks' end-of-day balance (`amount` + `amount_staked`), which it records only on days the balance changed; a day without a record keeps the last one. The 30-day change is the change of the three balances combined. Largest daily gap = for each day of the 30 days, the NEAR bought since the window began − the three wallets' gain since then, the largest of those 30 values (not below 0). The capture breaking point is reached when it exceeds 5% of the 30 days' NEAR bought.
- Protocol treasury: treasury.near's balance, read the same way. Its paid share = 10% × NEAR minted over the 30 days to `dataThrough` (or the last day both are stored, if earlier), against the balance's gain over those days; a lower gain means the treasury sent NEAR to other accounts.
- HSP-029: `get_proposal` on `vote.dao` with `{"proposal_id":29}`. Share for = veNEAR for ÷ all veNEAR voted, abstentions included.
- Total supply growth = the change of on-chain total supply over 365 days (NearBlocks daily history plus the worker's own daily reading).
- Peer supply growth = the median CoinGecko circulating supply (market cap ÷ price) of the newest 7 days ÷ the median of the 7 days ending 365 days earlier (or the first 7 stored days), scaled to a year, − 1, for coins with at least 360 days of history. Medians stop a single wrong reading from moving the result.
- Gross staking yield = NEAR minted over the 30 days to `dataThrough` × 365 ÷ 30 × (1 − the 10% treasury share) ÷ NEAR staked in the latest epoch. Chunk-validator seat = total stake × `minimum_stake_ratio`. Block-producer seat = the smallest stake among validators with `num_expected_blocks` > 0. Nakamoto coefficient = the fewest validators whose stake exceeds a third of all stake.
- Staking yield after supply growth = (1 + gross staking yield) ÷ (1 + total supply growth over the same 30 days, a yearly rate) − 1, where total supply growth = (NEAR minted − NEAR burned) ÷ total supply at the window's start × 365 ÷ 30; bought NEAR stays in total supply, so it is not subtracted.
- Fee chain shares: fees ÷ volume, revenue ÷ fees, buybacks ÷ revenue. NEAR bought a year at this pace ÷ circulating NEAR = NEAR bought over 30 days × 365 ÷ 30 ÷ (market cap ÷ price).
- Revenue in NEAR = each day's Intents revenue (USD) ÷ that day's NEAR price. Each month's revenue a day (its sum ÷ the days with revenue), in USD and in NEAR, is indexed to 100 in the first month with revenue on every day; only such months are shown (earlier revenue arrived in occasional lumps).
- Lead-lag test: weekly log changes in 7-day blocks ending on `dataThrough` (blocks need all seven days): Intents volume summed, prices at the close of the block's last day (the next day's 00:00 UTC price), active accounts averaged. The sample starts at the first week with at least $25M of Intents volume. NEAR's return beyond the market = the residual of an ordinary least-squares fit of NEAR's weekly return on the average of BTC's and ETH's. Correlation at lag k = Pearson correlation of x with y k weeks later. p = (1 + draws with |r| at least the observed) ÷ (1 + draws), over 9,999 stationary block bootstraps of x (blocks of 4 weeks on average, wrapping at the end, seed 20260223), which keep x's week-to-week pattern and break its alignment with y. Holm adjustment across every test; significant at 5%.
- Transfer cost = gas price × 0.446 Tgas × the NEAR price.
- Block time = seconds between the first and the last block-height sample of the window ÷ the blocks between them; the worker samples the latest final block every minute.
- Protocol upgrades shipped = stable (not release-candidate) nearcore releases on GitHub whose version ends in .0, published in the last 365 days; shown only when the stored releases reach back that far.
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